Prepay the loan, or put the money to work?
One after-tax rate comparison can clarify the choice
Rajan got a surprise inheritance last year. Not a lot — but enough to matter. His wife said clear the home loan and sleep better. His brother said invest it, don't waste the opportunity. For three months, the money sat in his account while he kept opening the calculator and closing it again. That stuck feeling? I see it every year.
The decision comes down to one comparison. What does your loan cost you after tax? What does investing earn you after tax? Compare those two numbers — everything else is noise.
Paying down the loan is a risk-free return at exactly your loan rate. If your home loan costs 9%, prepaying earns you 9% — with zero market risk. That is genuinely valuable, especially if you sleep badly with debt.
But which rate actually applies? Under the old tax regime, Section 24(b) lets you deduct up to ₹2 lakh of home loan interest each year. That drops a 9% loan to a 6–7% effective cost. Under the new tax regime — the default since FY 2023-24 — that deduction is gone. A 9% loan costs you the full 9%.
Indian equities have delivered roughly 14% CAGR since 1990. After the 12.5% capital gains tax on profits above ₹1.25 lakh per year, your effective return is around 12%. If your effective loan cost is 7% and equities return 12%, that 5-point gap compounds to real lakhs over a 20-year tenure.
Two counters for the same ₹3 lakh
Imagine the same ₹3 lakh standing at two counters. At the loan counter, it cancels interest you would otherwise pay — say a clear 7% effective saving. At the equity counter, it tries for around 12% over long periods, but the value may fall on the way. The question is not 'which sounds smarter?' The question is: after tax, which counter is likely to use this ₹3 lakh better, and can you tolerate the uncertainty?
Why this matters
If you're on the new tax regime, your 9% loan costs you 9% — no deduction softens it. Compare that against an expected 12% from equities over the long term. The difference on ₹3 lakh over 20 years is the gap between ₹12 lakh and ₹29 lakh. That could be a child's college cushion, or a meaningful retirement buffer. The maths does not care how the debt makes you feel. You should know both — the feeling and the number.
Where people go wrong
- Comparing gross loan rate to gross equity returnA 9% loan under the old regime may effectively cost 6–7% after Section 24(b). Compare after-tax numbers or you're deciding on the wrong maths.
- Prepaying aggressively in the final loan yearsHome loan EMIs are front-loaded — over 60% of total interest is paid in the first half of the tenure. Prepaying in year 17 of 20 saves almost nothing.
- Assuming Section 24(b) applies without checkingThe new regime has been the default since FY 2023-24. If you switched, Section 24(b) is unavailable — your effective loan cost is higher than you think.
- Clearing the loan by draining emergency savingsPrepaying a 9% loan then borrowing at 14% on a personal loan the next year is a net loss. Emergency savings come first, always.
Find your effective loan cost first — gross rate minus any Section 24(b) benefit you actually receive.
If you prepay, earlier is better — late prepayment on a front-loaded loan saves little.
If loan cost is lower than expected return and you can handle volatility, the maths favours investing.
Being in debt feels viscerally unsafe — even when the numbers clearly favour investing. That feeling is real, but it is not arithmetic. Know the difference before you decide.
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