ValueInvestIndia
Learn
||
← All Stocks
IT Services
MPHASIS
Mphasis
Fair value cannot yet be estimated reliably
Company logo used for identification only; no association, sponsorship, or endorsement is implied. ValueInvestIndia is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser or research analyst. This analysis is educational and is not investment advice.
NSE · MPHASIS
₹2,355
-0.59%
52-WEEK RANGE
₹2,013₹3,037.2
Vol: 345.8K
8 Sept, 03:37 pm IST
i

What this chart shows

This is the market price over time — what investors have been willing to pay each day. It is NOT a "when to buy / when to sell" signal chart, and we are NOT telling you to trade based on where the lines are going next. When evidence supports a fair-value estimate, the report compares today’s price with that estimate. When it does not, the report shows what operating performance today’s price appears to require. The chart pattern is not the conclusion.

Price Chart

MPHASIS — BSE Daily Chart

BSE DATA

Chart data from BSE via TradingView · For visual reference only

Investment Analysis

FY 2026 ANNUAL REVIEW · BASE THESIS

We publish one deep annual review per fiscal year. Quarterly check-ins appear in the ‘Quarterly Updates’ tab — like a diary. After FY 2027 results, we run a fresh thesis.

Analysis Date8 Aug 2026
Data as of8 Aug 2026
SourceScreener workbook
Expectations, not fair value

The verdict is fair value cannot yet be estimated reliably. Mphasis has a credible operating story built around enterprise modernization, AI-led work and repeat client expansion, yet the valuation methods disagree too widely to label the shares cheap or expensive. Watch owner cash earnings, receivables, margins and conversion of deal wins into revenue before acting.

🤖

Analysis generated by AI for educational purposes. Not SEBI-registered investment advice. Verify every figure independently.

Latest shareholding could not be sourced from BSE/NSE filings at the time of analysis — verify directly before sizing position.

What you need to believe at this price

A reverse DCF starts with today's share price and asks what future owner cash would make that price reasonable; DCF means discounted cash flow, which reduces future cash because waiting and risk matter. That inference is unavailable here because no dependable current-price analysis was produced and the valuation methods disagree too widely. Do not invent an implied growth rate. For the price to be supported in business terms, Mphasis would still need durable deal conversion, owner-cash growth, normal margins and returns on AI investment without a material rise in debt or collection delays.

Current Price
₹2,355
Live · as of 8 Sept
Valuation approach
Expectations test
Shows what today’s price requires from the business; it is not a fair-value estimate.
Fair Value Per Share
Not yet estimable
No rupee estimate is published until the cash evidence becomes dependable.
P/E25.4xprice per ₹1 profit
ROE17.3%return on equity
ROCE18.1%return on capital deployed
Div Yield2.5%annual dividend ÷ price
Net Cash₹902 Crcash minus total debt
Debt₹2,620 Crtotal borrowings
Revenue₹15,880 Crannual sales
Mkt Cap₹47,223 Crtotal company value
Sector
IT Services
NSE
MPHASIS
01

Business Model

How this company makes money, and why customers keep paying.

Mphasis helps global enterprises change and run their software, data and business processes. A customer pays for work such as modernizing an old technology estate, building AI-enabled decision tools, improving applications or operating technology services. Mphasis assigns engineers and domain specialists, uses platforms such as NeoIP and Continuum AI, connects them to the customer's existing systems and delivers the agreed outcome. Revenue is earned from these client engagements; the exact contract billing timetable is not disclosed here, while cash arrives through customer remittances. The important costs are skilled people and continued investment in software platforms, rather than factories or inventory. Profit becomes owner cash only after employee and operating costs, tax, working-capital timing and capital spending; owner cash earnings means cash left after the spending needed to sustain the business. The practical question is whether new deal value turns into durable revenue and timely cash without weakening margins.

02

Latest Developments

Recent developments and earnings that informed this analysis.

Mphasis ended FY26 with its highest pipeline, up 38%, and 69% of that opportunity set was AI-led. Annual net new total contract value, meaning the full value of newly signed contracts, exceeded $2.1 billion and rose 68%. Management also said the Theory and Practice acquisition brought Continuum AI and specialist talent, extending the offer from modernizing systems to improving business decisions. Direct revenue in Q4FY26 grew 3.3% sequentially and 9.2% year on year in constant currency, meaning after removing exchange-rate effects. These are encouraging lead indicators, not booked revenue: investors should watch deal ramp-up, cash collection and whether margins remain within the stated 14.75% to 15.75% band.

03

Competitive Moat

What protects this business from competitors.

A moat means a durable advantage that makes it hard for competitors to take customers or profits. Mphasis has evidence of differentiation, not proof of an unbreakable moat: NeoIP connects AI tools across enterprise technology, Continuum AI adds decision engineering, and management reported wallet-share gains, meaning existing clients gave Mphasis more work. The pipeline reached 2.6 times its size since Mphasis.ai launched, and the company won across deal sizes. These signals suggest reusable intellectual property and client familiarity may help selling and delivery. However, no retention rate, switching-cost evidence, pricing premium or competitor comparison is available. Treat the moat as promising but still under examination; durable renewal, steady margins and cash from repeat clients would strengthen the case.

04

Strategic Pivots

New bets management is making with your capital.

Mphasis is moving from mainly modernizing technology systems toward using AI to change how clients make business decisions. NeoIP supplies enterprise context and orchestration, while acquired Continuum AI adds decision intelligence informed by behavioural economics. The aim is to improve outcomes such as pricing, demand forecasting, underwriting throughput and fraud reduction, sometimes without replacing a client's core system. This broadens the budget Mphasis can pursue beyond technology cost savings into revenue and operating outcomes. The opportunity is meaningful, but the pivot succeeds only if reusable platforms shorten delivery, win contracts and protect margins rather than becoming costly experimentation.

05

Market Opportunity

How large the opportunity is, and how much remains uncaptured.

💡 TAM = Total Addressable Market (everyone who could ever buy). SAM = Serviceable Addressable Market (who the company can actually reach). SOM = Serviceable Obtainable Market (realistic share the company can win). Think of it like this: TAM is all the chai drinkers in India. SAM is chai drinkers in cities with a Starbucks nearby. SOM is how many Starbucks can actually serve.
TAM
Comparable figure not established
Total Addressable Market
TAM means total addressable market: the broadest possible demand the company could pursue. No source-backed TAM value or unit is available, so it would be misleading to invent a revenue, customer or spending figure. The evidence only supports a qualitative expansion from technology modernization into AI-led business decision work across more industries. Investors should wait for a clearly measured market definition before using TAM to justify growth or fair value.
SAM
Comparable figure not established
Serviceable Addressable Market
SAM means serviceable addressable market: the portion of the broad market Mphasis can actually serve with its capabilities, industries and delivery model. No source-backed SAM volume, revenue or customer count is available. The evidence shows applicability beyond retail and consumer packaged goods and describes modernization plus decision intelligence, but it does not quantify the reachable slice. Therefore SAM should guide questions about capability and sales coverage, not valuation arithmetic.
SOM
Comparable figure not established
Serviceable Obtainable Market
SOM means serviceable obtainable market: the share of reachable demand Mphasis could realistically win. No source-backed SOM value, unit or market-share estimate is available. Record deal value and a growing AI-led pipeline show sales traction, but pipeline is not revenue, profit, market share or fair value. A useful future measure would connect signed contracts, conversion speed, client retention and delivery capacity to actual revenue and owner cash.
06

Management & Governance

Who runs this company and how they treat shareholder money.

Management has shown operating discipline: Mphasis outperformed its initial growth expectation, kept full-year margins within the stated band and reported record annual new contract value. Chief executive Nitin Rakesh said this was his tenth year leading the company, which indicates continuity, and chief financial officer Aravind Viswanathan presented alongside him. Still, execution claims are not the same as a full governance assessment. The available evidence does not establish succession planning, incentive design, board independence or acquisition returns. Investors should credit delivery while continuing to test whether guidance becomes revenue, owner cash and sensible returns on capital.

🎯 Capital Allocation

Capital allocation means deciding whether cash should fund the business, acquisitions, debt reduction, dividends or share repurchases. Across FY22 to FY26, Mphasis generated operating cash flow of ₹8,101.85 Cr and spent ₹5,470.98 Cr on capital expenditure, a ratio of 0.68x. That fits a people-and-software business with relatively modest physical investment. It also paid dividends each year, while gross debt moved from ₹527.24 Cr to ₹2,619.68 Cr. The Theory and Practice acquisition added AI capability, but its price and return are not established here. Watch whether platform investment and the acquisition raise owner cash per share without weakening the balance sheet.

⚠️ AI-generated for informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Verify all figures independently. · Financial data sourced from Screener workbook.

⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Not SEBI registered.
Privacy PolicyTerms & ConditionsRefund PolicyInvestment Disclaimer
© 2026 ValueInvestIndia